As the rate of house price declines begins to slow and the cycle nears its end, the math reality of this historic time will become clear and compelling. For those with clients waiting for house prices to stop falling consider this:  

  • NJ house prices are dropping at a rate of 1/2 % per month, predicted to bottom out in the 2nd half of 2009.  
  • Interest rates are at historic lows. The federal government has indicated very clearly that they will hold mortgage rates artificially low until at most, late summer or early fall. There isn™t any thinking expert who isn™t certain of the impending rise in interest rates as a result of massive government spending.  
  • The ratio of home affordability will begin to disadvantage those who choose to wait. WHY? The affordability ratio is 9 to 1. For every 1% increase in interest rates you lose 9% in buying power (or affordability).  

Example: A $600,000 home declining at ½ % per month will be worth $576,415 in December (assuming that prices continue to drop till December¦not likely). A 1% increase in interest rates (highly likely) will mean a reduction in buying power to $546,000! So the $600,000 home that they can afford today is out of reach by the fall! Plus, your client will pay more in interest (a lot more) over the life of their loan.

For those who are fighting the headwind of media hype and misinformation, hopefully the straight numbers will help your clients make the right decision.

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Inventories continue to Rise in the Chatham Boro, Chatham Township, Madison and Summit as we get the 2009 spring real estate market underway.   Active Inventory ™09 vs ™08 is   As follows for Chatham Boro;   51 in ™09 vs   42 in ™08, Chatham Twp.; 97 vs 79, Madison; 77 vs. 64, and Summit: 139 vs 125.     Under Contract Units:™09 vs.. ™08 is as follow for Chatham Boro, 8 (™09) vs.   20 (™08),   Chatham Twp.; 8 (™09) vs. 33 ˜(08), Madison 31 vs. 21, and Summit 28 (™09) vs. 61 (™09).  

According to Jeffrey Otteau, from the Otteau Valuation Group, statewide in New Jersey, sales were off approximately 27% in January of 2009 versus January of 2008.   The good news is that affordability is coming up significantly as prices moderate and Interest rates continue to decline.   At the end of February, 30 year fixed rate mortgages were averaging just over 5%¦..Wow!

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This is another good article form Mortgage guy Drew McKenzie…..contact info. for Drew is at bottom….

Borrowers rushing to refinance loans as rates drop

By ALAN ZIBEL,

Associated Press

Posted: 2008-12-18 07:57:25

WASHINGTON (AP) – Homeowners around the country are scrambling to refinance their mortgages at the lowest rates since the early 1960s as the economy staggers through what’s likely to be the worst recession in decades.

Mortgage brokers are already reporting a surge of calls from borrowers trying to take advantage of the Federal Reserve’s extraordinary actions this week. Meanwhile, President-elect Barack Obama is laying the groundwork for a giant economic stimulus package, worth possibly $850 billion over two years, which Democratic congressional leaders say could be passed within two weeks of Obama taking office.

The central bank, aiming to free up lending and jolt the economy back to life, on Tuesday cut the federal funds rate from 1 percent to a target range of zero to 0.25 percent and pledged to keep funneling money into the market for mortgage investments.

On Wednesday, some mortgage brokers were quoting mortgage rates of close to 4.5 percent for people with strong credit and hefty down payments.

“This is beautiful, oh my gosh!” said Patti Mazzara, a mortgage broker in the Minneapolis suburb of Edina, who was surprised when she looked up rates and found them well below 5 percent, down at least three-quarters of a percentage point from earlier in the week. “This is a whole new game now. Hopefully it’s going to give people some relief.”

The national average rate on 30-year, fixed mortgages was 5.06 percent on Wednesday, according to financial publisher HSH Associates – the lowest since the 1960s and down from 5.3 percent Tuesday.

It was the best news in months for anyone looking to lock in a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage. But it was not expected to be a cure-all, and borrowers already in danger of foreclosure probably won’t be able to take advantage.

“It’s a call to action for homeowners looking to get out of adjustable-rate mortgages,” said Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com. “Unfortunately, it’s not an equal-opportunity party.”

Analysts say the Fed’s moves to buy up mortgage debt are designed to reduce the an unusually large difference, or spread, between mortgage rates and yields on government debt.

In recent years, there has been about a 1.8 percentage point difference between the yield on a 10-year Treasury note and 30-year mortgage rates, but gap currently hovers around 3 percentage points.

Falling interest rates mean Americans could suddenly find billions of extra dollars in their pockets at a time when consumers have sharply cut back on spending amid rising unemployment and declining household wealth. But many experts believe that the interest rate cuts alone won’t be enough to jump-start the economy.

“It’s a tall order to get (people) to go out and spend again,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank. “That’s why you also need a stimulus.”

Meanwhile, government data to be released Thursday is expected to show that new claims for unemployment benefits dropped last week but remain near a 26-year high, and a monthly forecast of economic activity is forecast to fall for the second straight month in November, in two signs of a deepening recession.

The Labor Department’s tally of initial jobless benefit claims for the week ending Dec. 13 is expected to drop by 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted level of 558,000, according to a survey of Wall Street economists by Thomson Reuters.

Last week, the government said claims jumped by almost 50,000 to 573,000, the highest level since 1982, though the labor force has grown by about half since then.

Later in the morning, the New York-based Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators is expected to fall 0.5 percent, according to the consensus estimate of economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters. The index posted a 0.8 percent decline in October.

The index is designed to forecast economic activity in the next three to six months based on 10 economic components, including stock prices, building permits and initial claims for unemployment benefits. And Freddie Mac, the mortgage company, is also scheduled to release its weekly survey of mortgage rates Thursday.

Also Thursday, President-elect Barack Obama is set to name a veteran of the Securities and Exchange Commission to lead the agency as it faces growing criticism for its failure to protect investors and detect trouble on Wall Street.

Mary Schapiro, who currently heads a nongovernment regulatory group for securities firms, is also a former head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and former member of the SEC. She has been appointed to government posts by two Republican presidents and one Democratic chief executive.

Wall Street stocks finished moderately lower Wednesday, as further signs of economic deterioration dampened investors’ earlier enthusiasm about the Fed’s record interest rate cut.

Stocks declined in the early going after a larger-than-expected loss from Morgan Stanley offered fresh evidence of the sizable obstacles the battered financial industry still faces. The company posted a loss of $2.37 billion, or $2.34 per share, for the fiscal fourth quarter. The report came a day after rival Goldman Sachs Group Inc. posted its first quarterly loss since going public in 1999.

Regards,

Drew McKenzie
ph: 973.271.8025
fx: 201.336.9169

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Hello everyone…..attached is an email from Steve Lupton at Metrocities Mortgage  in regard to the current  mortgage and realty market.

 Steve Lupton
Senior Mortgage Planner

Metrocities Mortgage
Phone: 908-522-6500
Fax: 908-248-9700
slupton@metrocitiesmtg.com

Dear Valued Client,

While the mortgage market continues to generate a lot of chatter in both the media and in Washington, interest rates are currently near or at all-time lows. If you or anyone you know are looking to take advantage of these low rates, let me explain why now is the time to act.

Lately there has been talk about the 4.5% 30-year fixed rate mortgage. Will it become a reality though? Right now, no one really knows. Homeowners who could benefit from a lower interest rate need to know that even if 4.5% becomes a reality from Washington’s actions, it would only be available to home buyers, not homeowners seeking to better their rate. If you need to refinance, you will be left out.

You also may have heard about Hope for Homeowners, which is a program approved by legislators to help distressed homeowners. However, regardless of its best intentions, the program has not been embraced by investors, and it is not available to many it could help.

The bottom line is, the Fed announced recently that they are going to buy up to $600 billion in mortgage-backed securities. This has already driven rates to historical lows. In January, the SEC is meeting and information may be released that could have a significant bearing on rates, potentially for the worse.

Waiting to obtain the best rate is only possible for those with loan applications already in process. Interest rates are incredibly volatile and fluctuations that used to take months are now occurring in just days or even hours. If you don’t have an application in process, you could lose out.

We are already seeing lender backlog due to low interest rates. In 2003, with rates at these same low levels, we saw some lenders taking up to 90 days to close a loan.

Home loan rates are currently in the mid- to low-5% range. Home values are currently at 2003-2004 levels, coming down significantly from their high point. If you“or friends and family members you know“are contemplating seeking financing, now is the time to act.

With a first time home buyer tax credit of up to $7,500 and low or no money down programs available for many people today, now is a great time to buy a home.

If you have any questions about how we can help you, call us today.

Sincerely,

Steve Lupton
Metrocities Mortgage
908-522-6500
slupton@metrocitiesmtg.com

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For week of 12/05/08…

New Pending Contracts:

                                           week                       Year to Date       Last Year T.D.

Chatham Boro “0″                                         “85″                                   “126″

Chatham Twp. “3″                                          ”144″                                  ”163″

Madison Boro   “2″                                          ”142″                                 “163″

Summit                    ”4″                                           “249″                                 “299″

Short Hills             “1″                                          ”260″                                 “324″                  

As you can see,  numbers of transactions  are down across the board YTD.   I am getting calls from folks who have been waiting on  the sidelines  for things to settle out.   Between prices being down and interest rates coming down, I do sense that some folks who have been waiting to buy are getting ready to  get back into the market.   Feel free to use my market snapshot tool for some more detailed statistics and current market conditions.   You can specify towns, etc using it.   You’ll find it in the right hand column at www.TomHeyl.com

                             

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Today’s wall street journal includes a front page article in regard to The Treasury Department pushing a plan that would help push down mortgage rates further.   Currently, conforming 30 year loans are in the range of 5.5% to 5.75%.   The plan would use Fannie Mae and  Fredie Mac to help in encouraging banks to lend at rates as low 4.5%.   If this should come to fruition, it should certainly help to make homes more affordable.   Typically a 1% drop in interest rates equates to nearly a 10% increase in buyers buying power.   Combine interest rate drops with some prices coming down significantly  and you have what can be large potential savings for buyers.   I’ve got to believe that this should hopefully get some   more buyers back into our local Chatham’s, Harding, Summit area markets.

According to Steve Lupton at Metrocities Mortgage, a conforming 30 year  fixed mortgage is at 5.37% with an APR of 5.54%  which equals a mortgage  payment of $5.60 per $1000 borrowed.   Jumbo’s are at $6.25% with a APR of 6.344% with a payment of $6.16 per $1000 borrowed.   Steve can be reached at 908-522-6500 or email him at: slupton@metrocitiesmtg.com

In the local Chatham Boro, Chatham Twp. and Madison Markets for the November time periods we have had 6 homes go under contract in Chatham Boro for a year to date total as of 11/30  of 85 homes vs 125 last year, Chatham Twp had 5 homes go under contract for a total of 141 vs 162 last year, and Madison had 7 homes for a total through November of 140 vs 163 last year.   I am working on setting up a page to keep anyone who is interested informed of our local area realty statistics in an easy to follow spread sheet type format.     You are    more than   welcome to go  to my www.TomHeyl.com  realty web site and use my MarketSnapshot tool to keep track  of current sales, sales prices etc. for any areas you may be interested in following.   It is a nifty tool that provides some pretty cool reports.  

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I’m holding an open house at 18 Glen Alpin Rd, New Vernon, NJ this weekend. Sunday December 7th from 1pm to 4pm. Spectacular new construction – 6 bedrooms, 6 1/2 baths, 3 charming fireplaces… a must see. Check out my website for more details & photos of this gorgeous home : http://www.tomheyl.com/MyHomeDtl.asp?lstPages=1&HomeID=586715

Directions are – Glen Alpin, just past the traffic light @ Bayne Park, Village Rd / Lees Hill, Glen Alpin intersection. Hope to see you there!

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This is good news.    From everything that I have read, this should make money  more available to buyers as well as continue to bring rates on conformimg loans down.   Hopefully this helps buyers and sellers alike.     I’ve attached an email I received from Matt Keane who is a mortgage  specialist with Superior Mortgage.   Matt is a local Chatham resident, and is one of the best versed mortgage folks I work with.   If you need any help or have questions in regard to financing a purchase, refinancing your home etc, Matt knows the business and knows our local Chatham’s, Madison, Summit, Harding, New Providence markets etc. very  well.

Hi everyone  Today we saw a substantial change in our favor with current mortgage rates that was brought about by an announcement from the Federal Reserve to buy billions of dollars in mortgage backed securities. As a result of this announcement we saw a dramatic downward shift in mortgage rates that will make purchasing a home more affordable than ever before for potential buyers.  Here is a quick example                 ·               A conventional 30 year fixed at 5.625% on a 30 year fixed to $417,000Or ·               For clients with limited down payment options, you can lock in at 5.5% with as little as 3% down on loan amounts to $362,000 with an FHA loan                                                                  A quick note on Jumbo Rates (over $417,000)  For the better part of the past year or so, rates on jumbo loans have been substantially higher than the conforming loan rates. As a result of today™s market movement I do expect jumbo rates to come down in the next few days.  Here is a quick example of today™s rates: ·               30 Year fixed to 1.5 million would be 6.25% ·               5/1 ARM to 1.5 millions would be 5.375%Both of theses products are available with 90 day locks.  For a rate as low as 5.375% on loan amounts as high as 1.5 million, the ARM product maybe a viable option some borrowers and is worth considering.  Hopefully today™s movement will give all of our potential  buyers the sign they have been waiting for that now is the time to buy!!  Thanks everyone and have a Happy Thanksgiving  Matt Cell 973-464-7571Matthew KeaneSuperior Mortgage 30 Campus Drive, Edison NJ 08837Office 800-885-7001 ext 12 Fax 732-909-3933Cell 973-464-7571

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Well….If you want to live in anywhere along the mid-town direct train line, now is a great time to buy.   Prices are coming down on many properties, yet they are still in positive territory for most  seller’s  who has been in their home for for at least a couple of year’s or more.   As a buyer, if you have good credit, a down-payment of 20% and an  income stream to support your payment, it is still very possible to get a mortgage at an attractive interest rate.   Most conforming buyers can still obtain a rate that is actually very attractive by historical standards.   The Realty market’s in towns such as the  Chatham’s, Madison, Summit, Short Hills and New Providence are generally the last to decline (which is has been true in the recent market downturn) and are generally the first to come back.   By trying to time the market to closely, it will already be headed back up by the time you realize.   Now’s the time to buy if you are serious about getting into any of these great midtown direct towns in Morris, Union or Essex Counties.

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Welcome to Thomas Heyl’s Blog! This blog will provide you with valuable information, tips, and general insight into the real estate market in Summit.

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